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我国经济进入调整期后,人民币汇率走势的不确定性将增加,汇率变动将成为经济决策与预测的重要考量因素自2007年9月以后,人民币汇率出现了加速上升趋势,逐日迫近7:1的市场心理关口。人民币对美元汇率加速上升,既是人民币向市场价值的回归,也反映了近期国际国内经济形势的剧烈变化。预计今年内这一升值趋势有望继续保持,但从中期来看,决定人民币币值的诸多基础性因素仍面临较大不确定性,有必要为应对汇率波动做更多准备。
After China’s economy enters the adjustment period, the uncertainty of the RMB exchange rate will increase. Exchange rate changes will become an important factor in economic decision-making and forecasting. Since September 2007, the exchange rate of RMB has been accelerating upward and approaching 7: 1 Market psychological barrier. The acceleration of RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar is not only the return of the renminbi to the market value but also reflects the drastic changes in the international and domestic economic situation in recent years. It is expected that this appreciation trend will continue to be maintained this year. However, in the medium term, many fundamental factors that determine the value of RMB will still face greater uncertainty and it will be necessary to make more preparations to deal with exchange rate fluctuations.