论文部分内容阅读
基于扩展的HP滤波法和移动平均法对1999年1季度至2010年3季度我国房地产价格和股票价格波动周期的识别和稳健性评价,以及使用非参数统计方法和逻辑离散选择模型从备选因素中确定适合解释房地产价格和股票价格膨胀的决定因素,发现固定资产投资、实际GDP、名义(实际)信贷和名义(实际)货币的增加,提高了房地产价格膨胀发生的概率;而实际货币的增加,提高了股票价格膨胀发生的概率。因此,提出如下政策建议:第一,用宏观审慎工具抑制资产价格泡沫时,区分不同的资产类别非常重要;第二,将所有资产价格信息构成一个单一资产价格指数指标的做法并不可取;第三,货币政策的主要目标是保持物价稳定,同时还要考虑经济增长、充分就业、国际收支平衡;第四,监管当局引入新的宏观审慎监管时,必须考虑成本问题。
Based on the extended HP filter and moving average method, the identification and robustness evaluation of China’s real estate price and stock price fluctuation period from the first quarter of 1999 to the third quarter of 2010, and the non-parametric statistical method and the logical discrete choice model Identified the determinants suitable for explaining real estate prices and stock price inflation and found that the increase in fixed asset investment, real GDP, nominal (real) credit and nominal (real) currency increased the probability of real estate price inflation; and the increase in real money , Raising the probability of stock price inflation. Therefore, the following policy suggestions are proposed: First, it is very important to distinguish between different asset classes when macroeconomic prudential instruments are used to suppress asset price bubbles. Secondly, it is not advisable to make all asset price information form a single index of asset prices. Third, the main objective of monetary policy is to keep prices stable while taking into account economic growth, full employment and the balance of payments. Fourth, when introducing new macro-prudential supervision, the supervisory authorities must consider the cost issue.