论文部分内容阅读
针对日益加剧的水资源供需矛盾和水资源系统的复杂性,引入复杂适应系统理论,开展了以供定需原则下的区域水资源优化配置研究.引入3个调配驱动因子:水价、节水和产业政策;运用层次分析法对初始水权进行分配;采用阶梯水价模式;通过主体模型来描述主体的行为、目标和相互联系.将模型应用于水资源短缺的巴彦淖尔市,应用研究结果表明,建立的区域水资源以供定需优化配置模型能有效地在有限水资源供给条件下,辅助水资源管理部门进行水资源配置决策,同时为水权交易市场的价格制定和调整提供理论与方法依据.“,”Under the condition of limited water resources and water resources system complexity,optimal allocation methodology for regional water resources management based on the supply-oriented model was developed.Three driving factors,such as water price,water saving and industrial policy,were utilized to adjust the balance between water supply and demand.AHP method was used to determine primary water rights for water users.Ladder water price was utilized to model price of users.Agent-based modeling was introduced to describe the behavior,target and linkages among the agents.The developed optimal allocation model based on the supply-oriented model was applied for water resources management in the Bayannur city where it is facing water shortage issues.The results indicate that the proposed model can effectively be used to allocate water rights of water users under limited regional water resources.It can also supply decision support for determining and adjusting water price in water market for water resource management sectors.