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根据1997年和2002年《上海市投入产出表》的基本信息,用定量分析的方法比较和研究5年来上海市经济总量及产业结构变化对交通运输服务需求的影响。结果表明,交通运输业与上海经济发展的相关性趋于强化,对交通运输中间投入的完全消耗和最终使用的完全需求影响最大的产业和项目分别从1997年的建筑业、省际销售(调出)和固定投资转换为2002年的化学工业、省际销售(调出)和外贸出口。因此,随着上海外向型经济和重化工业的不断推进,交通运输业的发展空间必将更为广阔。
According to the basic information of Shanghai Input-Output Table in 1997 and 2002, the quantitative analysis is used to compare and study the impact of Shanghai’s economic aggregate and industrial structure changes on transport service demand in the past 5 years. The results show that the correlation between transportation and Shanghai’s economic development tends to be intensified. Industries and projects that have the greatest impact on the total consumption of intermediate transportation inputs and the complete demand for final use are respectively from the construction industry and the provincial sales in 1997 Out) and fixed investment into the chemical industry in 2002, provincial sales (transfer) and foreign trade exports. Therefore, with the continuous development of Shanghai’s export-oriented economy and heavy chemical industry, the space for development of the transportation industry will surely be more extensive.