论文部分内容阅读
为了研究气候变化对福建省水稻生产及稻作制度的影响,根据IPCC排放情景特别报告(SRES)的A2、B2和A1B方案,分析了未来不同情景下,福建省水稻生育期气温及降水的时空分布特征及水稻种植布局变化.结果表明:未来福建省水稻生育期的温度将呈上升趋势,随着时间的推移,增温幅度加大.单季稻生育期增温幅度最大,2011—2030年和2031—2050年分别增加0.3～2.4℃和1.5～3.4℃;早稻生育期两个时段分别增加0.2～0.9℃和0.7～1.7℃;后季稻生育期两个时段分别增加0.3～2.1℃和0.5～3.6℃,且日均温的年际波动幅度最大.降水多呈增加趋势,早稻、单季稻和后季稻生育期降水分别增加10%～40%、10%～30%和10%～20%;闽东南早稻生育期的降水年际波动最大.未来气温的上升导致了10℃以上积温增加,水稻生长季延长,使用晚熟品种替代早熟和中熟品种及单季稻种植区改种双季稻成为可能.
In order to study the impact of climate change on rice production and paddy farming system in Fujian Province, according to A2, B2 and A1B schemes of SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) of Fujian Province, the spatial and temporal distributions of temperature and precipitation during the growth of rice in Fujian Province under different scenarios were analyzed Distribution characteristics and changes of rice planting layout.The results showed that the temperature of rice growth stage will increase in Fujian Province in the future and the temperature increase rate will increase with the passage of time.The growth rate of single-cropping rice is the largest during the growth period of 2011-2030 and 2031 - increased by 0.3 ~ 2.4 ℃ and 1.5 ~ 3.4 ℃ in 2050; increased by 0.2 ~ 0.9 ℃ and 0.7 ~ 1.7 ℃ in early growth stage and increased by 0.3 ~ 2.1 ℃ and 0.5 ~ 3.6 ℃, and the daily average temperature fluctuated the most in the interannual period.The precipitation increased mostly, the precipitation increased by 10% -40%, 10% -30% and 10% -20% during the growth period of early rice, single cropping rice and post cropping rice respectively. The fluctuation of precipitation in early southeast Fujian is the largest during the growing period, which may lead to the increase of accumulated temperature above 10 ℃, the prolongation of rice growing season, the use of late maturing varieties instead of early maturing and medium maturing varieties and double cropping of single cropping rice.