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在传统灰色模型和马尔科夫理论的基础上,根据新信息优先原理,构建维新无偏灰色马尔科夫模型。以我国2003年~2011年煤矿事故死亡人数为基础,预测2012年~2016年煤矿事故死亡人数,并与传统模型预测结果进行对比分析。
Based on the traditional gray model and Markov theory, a new unbiased gray Markov model is constructed based on the new information priority principle. Based on the death toll of coal mine accident in China from 2003 to 2011, the death toll of coal mine accidents from 2012 to 2016 is predicted and compared with the prediction results of traditional model.