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本文在细分债务类型的基础上,利用典型OECD国家1980-2009年的面板数据,采用多种方法考察了政府债务和私人债务对经济增长的影响,在此基础上进一步实证分析二者与系统性银行业危机的关系。结果表明:(1)政府债务对经济增长的影响不显著,私人债务的积累则与经济增长高度负相关;将私人债务细分为家庭债务与企业债务,结果显示二者之间存在差异:企业债务的增加会显著制约经济增长,家庭债务与经济增长的相关性并不显著。(2)对于危机这一特殊事件的发生,各类型债务又在其中扮演了不同的角色,概率估计的结果显示,就危机爆发而言,政府债务规模与银行业危机是否发生之间并无必然联系,而私人债务则是银行业危机的根源;无论是家庭债务抑或是企业债务的积累均提高了危机发生的概率,此时二者并未显示出本质的区别。这对于认识当前有关全球经济的争论乃至我国的债务问题均具有重要启示意义。
Based on the subdivision of debt types and using the panel data of typical OECD countries from 1980 to 2009, this paper examines the impact of government debt and private debt on economic growth using a variety of methods, and based on this, further empirical analysis of the two systems Sex banking crisis. The results show that: (1) the impact of government debt on economic growth is not significant; the accumulation of private debt is highly negatively correlated with economic growth; the subdivision of private debt into household debt and corporate debt shows the difference between the two: Debt increases will significantly restrict economic growth, household debt and economic growth is not significant correlation. (2) As for the special event of crisis, all kinds of debts play different roles in them. The result of probability estimation shows that in the case of crisis, it is not necessary for the scale of government debt and the occurrence of banking crisis to occur However, private debt is the root cause of the banking crisis. Both the household debt and the corporate debt increase the probability of the crisis. At this time, the two do not show the essential difference. This is of great significance to understanding the current debate on the global economy and even the debt problem in our country.