基于单状态变量摩擦定律,把协同学和分岔理论联系起来,建立了边坡失稳时间预报的协同分岔非线性理论模型.该模型体现了边坡在演化过程中各个因素之间的协同作用及分岔现象,并可对滑坡的发生时间进行预报.通过对新滩滑坡的预报,证明该方法精度较高. Based on the friction law of single state variables, the synergetic theory and bifurcation theory are combined to establish a theoretical model of cooperative bifurcation of slope instability time prediction.The model reflects the synergy of various factors in the process of slope evolution Effect and bifurcation of the landslide, and forecast the time of the landslide.Through the forecast of the Xintan landslide, the method is proved to be accurate.