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中国农产品价格在2004年出现拐点,由低位平稳运行变为明显上升;生产成本上升、供需结构紧平衡、货币过度供给和突发事件等因素的共同作用使得2007年后农产品整体价格涨幅加大,年均上涨约11个百分点,其中三大粮食品种、棉花、蔬菜、水果的年均波幅变化相对较小,而大豆、豆油和肉类的价格波幅变化较大。长期来看,农产品供求紧平衡和生产成本的刚性上升将会进一步推动农产品价格上涨;短期来看,三大粮食品种价格将稳步上升但幅度可控;油棉类产品价格更易受国际市场影响;猪肉价格周期性上涨接近峰值;蔬果等小宗农产品价格波幅呈现很大的不确定性。
The price of agricultural products in China showed an inflection point in 2004, turning it from a stable operation of low level to a marked rise. The combined effect of rising production costs, tight supply and demand structure, excess supply of money and emergencies made the overall price increase of agricultural products even larger after 2007, The average annual increase of about 11 percentage points, of which the three major grain varieties, cotton, vegetables, fruits, the average annual changes in the amplitude is relatively small, while soybean, soybean oil and meat prices volatility greater. In the long run, the tight balance between supply and demand of agricultural products and the rigid increase of production costs will further push up the prices of agricultural products. In the short run, the prices of the three major grain varieties will rise steadily but in a controlled manner. The prices of oil- Pork prices rose periodically close to the peak; fruits and vegetables and other small commodity prices showed great uncertainty.