论文部分内容阅读
自我国进入宏观经济新常态阶段以来,CPI水平保持低位正增长的同时,PPI水平却出现了连续的下滑态势,二者之间出现了较大程度的背离,这不仅与经济理论不符,同时也使得货币政策调控物价水平的功能受到了严重的制约,经济结构转型受阻。针对这一点,对新常态下CPI与PPI产生背离的货币政策原因进行动态分析。研究发现,不同时期下CPI与PPI对货币冲击反应的差异性引起了CPI与PPI之间背离现象,而这同时也是新常态下货币政策调控二者之间剪刀差效果甚微的原因。故而,中央银行应该强化价格型调节和传导机制,疏通货币政策向实体经济的传导渠道,从而提高货币政策的运行效率和服务实体经济的能力,缓解CPI与PPI之间的背离现象。
Since our country entered the new normal phase of macro-economy, CPI levels have maintained a low positive growth while the PPI level has seen a continuous downward trend, with a large degree of divergence between the two, which is not only inconsistent with economic theory but also at the same time Making the function of monetary policy to control the price level has been severely restricted, economic restructuring hindered. In view of this, we make a dynamic analysis of the reasons for the departure of the CPI from the PPI under the new normal. The study finds that the discrepancy between the CPI and the PPI on the impact of the currency shocks at different periods has caused the divergence between the CPI and the PPI, and this is also the reason that the scissors difference between the two has not been controlled by the monetary policy under the new normal. Therefore, the central bank should strengthen price regulation and transmission mechanism and clear the conduction channel of monetary policy to the real economy so as to improve the operational efficiency of monetary policy and the ability to serve the real economy, so as to ease the gap between CPI and PPI.