自80年代中期以来,石油期货交易日益盛行,但是传统价格预测方法却愈来愈不能适应市场的变化。即使用最为全面的分析方法来解释市场,也总能发现在市场供需信号与油价短期波动之间存在一定的差距。随着1991年海湾战争的爆发和越来越多的石油交易新手进入市场,这种差距进一步拉大。油价已不能再单纯地由生产者、炼油厂家和消费者来决定。 Since the mid-1980s, oil futures trading has become increasingly popular, but the traditional methods of price forecasting are increasingly unable to adapt to changes in the market. Even the most comprehensive analysis method is used to explain the market, and it can always be found that there is a certain gap between the market supply and demand signals and the short-term volatility of oil prices. With the outbreak of the Gulf War in 1991 and more and more new oil traders entering the market, this gap has further widened. Oil prices can no longer be solely determined by producers, refiners, and consumers.