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财政分权对于经济增长的影响是一个关键的理论和实践问题,但尚无定论。本文提出了一个新假说:新中国财政分权速度和程度对于经济增长具有决定性的影响。该假说在某种程度上超越了计划经济和市场经济的框架。从长期来看,考虑速度和程度的财政分权与经济增长有显著的正相关关系,但并不排除中短期对经济增长产生负面影响的可能。通常认定的20世纪80年代中期进行的财政分权改革和90年代中期的分税制改革只不过是一个历史阶段延续问题。短期过快过急的分权会带来灾难性的经济后果(例如“大跃进”)。数据模拟结果还意味着,1978年以后的改革开放所取得的经济增长奇迹,不仅是体制变迁和市场化的结果,也是财政分权道路进一步延伸的产物,但其分权效应正在减弱,正逐步逼近财政分权效应的边界。
The impact of fiscal decentralization on economic growth is a key theoretical and practical issue, but there is no conclusion yet. This paper presents a new hypothesis: The speed and extent of the financial decentralization in New China have a decisive influence on economic growth. To a certain extent, this hypothesis goes beyond the framework of a planned economy and a market economy. In the long run, the fiscal decentralization taking into account the speed and degree has a significant positive correlation with economic growth, but it does not rule out the possibility of a negative impact on economic growth in the short to medium term. The generally recognized reform of fiscal decentralization and the reform of the tax-sharing system in the mid-1980s as a result of the mid-1980s are but a continuation of the historical phase. Decentralization of the short term too fast can have disastrous economic consequences (eg “Great Leap Forward”). The data simulation results also mean that the miracle of economic growth achieved after 1978 through the reform and opening up is not only a result of institutional changes and marketization but also a product of the further extension of the fiscal decentralization. However, the decentralization effect is gradually declining Approaching the boundary of fiscal decentralization.