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第六次人口普查数据显示,东北地区每年人口净流出200万,人口结构正由过去的“纺锤型”逐步向“倒三角型”转变。劳动力外流、人口老龄化、少子化现象严重,且已成为制约东北地区经济发展的重要影响因素。本文首先从人口结构视角,揭示了人口的年龄结构、城乡结构、文化结构、性别结构、产业结构以及失业结构对经济增长的作用机理。再以2003~2014年东北三省34个地级市的面板数据为基础,纳入空间效应后构建空间计量经济学模型。检验了东北地区经济增长的空间依赖性,并估计了人口结构因素对经济增长的影响程度,研究结果显示:东北地区各地级市之间的经济增长存在明显的正的空间相关性,且这种空间依赖性不断加强;劳动年龄人口、城镇人口以及中专以上学历人口对经济增长具有显著的促进作用,三者对经济增长的贡献程度为:劳动年龄人口>城镇人口>中专以上学历人口;失业人口对东北地区经济增长具有显著的抑制作用;最后,文章从人口扶贫、人口政策调整、人力资本投资、产业结构调整等方面提出了相应的建议。
According to the sixth census data, the population in Northeast China has a net outflow of 2 million annually. The population structure is gradually shifting from the “spindle type” to the “inverted triangle type”. The outflow of labor, the aging population and the declining birthrate have become serious problems and have become an important factor that restricts the economic development in the Northeast. From the perspective of demographic structure, this article first reveals the mechanism of population age structure, urban-rural structure, cultural structure, gender structure, industrial structure and unemployment structure on economic growth. Based on the panel data of 34 prefecture-level cities in Northeast China from 2003 to 2014, spatial econometrics model was constructed after incorporating spatial effect. This paper tests the spatial dependence of economic growth in northeast China and estimates the extent of the impact of population structure on economic growth. The results show that there is a clear positive spatial correlation between economic growth among prefecture-level cities in Northeast China and that this The spatial dependence has been continuously strengthened; the working-age population, the urban population and the secondary school education background have a significant role in promoting economic growth. The contribution of the three to economic growth is as follows: working-age population> urban population> secondary education or above; Unemployed population has a significant inhibitory effect on the economic growth in Northeast China. Finally, the article puts forward corresponding suggestions from the aspects of population poverty alleviation, population policy adjustment, human capital investment and industrial structure adjustment.