论文部分内容阅读
一、引言本文首先对预测过程的基本结构作了分析与定义,然后对技术预测德尔菲法及其它方法进行了论述,最后对日美在制定发展战略和长期计划过程中怎样对待预测(技术预测、新产品预测、新市场预测)进行了阐述。本文还提出了一个尝试性方法,即“模糊德尔菲法”。该方法是在经过大量调查研究的基础上提出来的。本文最后建议日本公司在制定经营战略和长期计划时使用这些方法。
I. INTRODUCTION This paper first analyzes and defines the basic structure of the forecasting process, then discusses the Delphi method and other methods of technical forecasting. Finally, it discusses how Japan and the United States treat predictions when formulating development strategies and long-term plans (technical predictions). , new product forecast, new market forecast) are elaborated. This article also proposes an attempted method, namely “fuzzy Delphi method”. This method is based on a lot of investigation and research. This paper concludes by suggesting that Japanese companies use these methods when formulating business strategies and long-term plans.