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近年来中国政府的房地产业宏观调控已成为令人瞩目的焦点,对房地产行业的严厉调控是否会引起中国经济的硬着陆?本文基于最新一轮房地产宏观调控背景,运用1998年第一季度到2011年第四季度的数据进行了实证分析并发现,对房地产行业的单一的严厉调控会从房地产投资和房价两个方面对宏观经济带来负面影响。改进措施是进一步推进保障性住房政策的落实和完成,合理有效运用财税政策手段来弱化房地产调控中产生的负面效应,并切实改变长期以来以房地产投资为导向的经济增长模式。
In recent years, the Chinese government real estate macro-control has become the focus of attention, the severe regulation of the real estate industry will cause the Chinese economy hard landing? This article based on the latest round of real estate macro-control background, the use of the first quarter of 1998 to 2011 The fourth quarter of the year empirical analysis of the data and found that the real estate industry will be a single severe regulation from two aspects of real estate investment and housing prices on the macroeconomic negatively affected. The measures for improvement are to further promote the implementation and completion of affordable housing policies, reasonably and effectively use fiscal and taxation policies and measures to weaken the negative effects of real estate regulation and control, and earnestly change the long-term real estate investment-oriented economic growth mode.