1986年年底世界经济形势充满了矛盾。表面看似可以无忧无虑,因为既没有全球性衰退的威胁,也看不到有新的通货膨胀趋势。但它也有阴暗的一面。本文主要探讨没有解决的问题。文章作者是德意志银行监理会主席,鉴于他多方面的经验,尤其是在国际财政和货币政策方面富有经验,所以他的判断具有相当的权威性。深入的分析表明,我们面临着一系列必须非常认真对待的问题,而它们又密切地交织在一起。1.几个工业大国,尤其是美国和日本的国际收支持续不平衡,导致货币领域不断出现动荡和不稳定。即使出现相对平静的时期,也是假象。2.世界经济的增长速度仍然低于为减少失业、改善发展中国家境况所必需的水平。对提高增长速度的可能性的认识分歧,引起了大西洋两岸的激烈争论,而且辐射到了政治领域。3.尽管取得了一些进展、但还没有解决的债务问题,仍象达摩克里斯剑一样,悬挂在世界经济的头上。4.不断加强的贸易保护主义危险,尚未排除。 The world economic situation was full of contradictions at the end of 1986. The seemingly carefree look, because there is neither the threat of a global recession nor the new inflationary trends. But it also has the dark side. This article focuses on unresolved issues. The author is the chairman of the Deutsche Bank Supervisory Board and is judged authoritative by virtue of his multifaceted experience, particularly with regard to international fiscal and monetary policy. In-depth analysis shows that we are confronted with a series of issues that must be taken very seriously and that they are closely intertwined. 1. The continuing imbalances in the balance of payments in several industrialized countries, especially the United States and Japan, have led to continued turmoil and instability in the monetary area. Even if there is a relatively calm period, it is also an illusion. 2. The world economy is still growing at a rate below the level necessary to reduce unemployment and improve the situation of developing countries. The disagreement over the possibility of increasing the rate of growth has caused heated debates on both sides of the Atlantic and has radiated into the political arena. 3. Despite some progress, the unresolved debt problem still hangs on the head of the world economy, like the sword of Damocles. 4. The increasing danger of trade protectionism has not been ruled out.