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科学测算经济波动的强度和驱动因素是进行宏观调控的基础。本文首先建立条件马尔科夫模型,测算发现延续大稳健与开启增速换挡是新常态下宏观经济运行的两大典型事实。为进一步探究其驱动因素,本文建立了刻画经济系统时变性的TVPSV-VAR模型,实证结果表明:第一,大稳健态势得以延续是结构冲击的刺激和传导机制双重渐变所致,分别表现为供给冲击和需求冲击的波动性下降以及经济系统对于冲击的传导显现出明显的缓冲作用,因而经济的自我稳定效应得到进一步加强。第二,增速换挡是潜在增长率下降和外部负向需求冲击长期化二者叠加的结果。供给冲击主导的经济增长长期趋势进入下行通道是主要因素,这是始于2006年的渐变而非2012年以来的突变,2012年的加快改革已使降速放缓但仍未实现托底;需求冲击主导的周期成分持续为负则是助推因素,微刺激政策效果逐渐显现但未足以转变冲击方向。新常态下的减速治理必须改革和调控双提速,加快结构调整、技术创新以及制度变革以平滑和扭转潜在增长率的下降趋势,同时迅速调整财政货币政策以对冲负向需求冲击常态化的影响。
The strength and driver of scientific measurement of economic fluctuations are the basis for macroeconomic regulation and control. In this paper, the conditional Markov model is first established. It is found that the continuation of large-scale robustness and the acceleration of gear shifting are the two typical facts of the macroeconomic operation in the new normal. In order to further explore its driving forces, this paper establishes a TVPSV-VAR model that depicts the time-varying nature of the economic system. The empirical results show that: First, the continuation of the large steady state is caused by the dual gradual changes in the stimulus and conduction mechanisms of structural shocks, The volatility of shocks and demand shocks declines and the economic system plays a significant buffer role in the transmission of shocks, and thus the economic self-stabilizing effect is further strengthened. Second, growth shifts are the result of the superposition of the potential decline in growth rates and the long-term impact of negative external demand. The long-term trend of supply-led economic growth into the downward spiral is the major factor. This is a gradual change from 2006 rather than a sudden change from 2012. The accelerated reform in 2012 has already led to a slowdown but has yet to bottom out. Demand The impact of negative impact on the dominant cycle component is a boost factor, the gradual emergence of micro-stimulus policy, but not enough to change the direction of impact. The new normal deceleration management must speed up the pace of reform and regulation, speed up structural adjustment, technological innovation and institutional change to smooth and reverse the downward trend of the potential growth rate, while rapidly adjusting fiscal and monetary policies to hedge the impact of the normalization of demand shocks.