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小麦赤霉病是一种比较典型的气候型病害,流行程度主要决定于小麦扬花灌浆期的气候条件。根据赤霉病的历年资料,利用前期气象因子与病害流行程度的相关性进行“电标”,建立多元回归预测式和应用多因子点聚图预测法,综合预报小麦赤霉病的流行程度,连续3年取得了良好的效果。 一、小麦赤霉病流行条件分析 (一)稻桩带菌率与发病程度关系 根据我县1972至84年资料分析,小麦抽穗前(3月中旬)田间稻桩带菌率与发病程度呈正相关(r二0.6662),带菌率与发病程度一致的有9年,拟合率64.3％,相反的4年,其中带菌率高而发病轻的3年,带菌率低而发病重的1年。因此,稻桩带菌率只能作预测的参考依据。 (二)决定赤霉病流行程度的气象要素 有关资料常以小麦齐穗后20天内的雨
Wheat scab is a typical climatic disease, the prevalence is mainly determined by the climatic conditions of wheat during flowering stage. According to the data of past years of scab, we use the correlation between pre-meteorological factors and disease prevalence to establish “diversion forecast” and predict the prevalence of wheat head blight by using multi-factor point prediction method. For 3 consecutive years has achieved good results. Analysis of epidemic conditions of wheat scab (a) The relationship between the rate of rice piling and the incidence According to the data of our county from 1972 to 1984, the rate of rice piling in the field before the heading of wheat (mid-March) was positively correlated with the incidence (r Two 0.6662). The rate of infection was 9 years consistent with the degree of incidence. The fitting rate was 64.3% and the opposite was 4 years. Among them, the carrier rate was high and the incidence was mild for 3 years. Therefore, the rate of rice piles can only be used as a reference for prediction. (II) Meteorological elements that determine the prevalence of scab are often reported as rain within 20 days after heading of wheat