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文章基于我国重大地震灾害易引起财政剧烈波动的现实背景,借鉴国际上普遍采用的保险机制替代财政救灾的方式,根据我国地震相关历史数据,通过构建地震灾害财政救灾支出负担的积累模型,模拟了在不同保险金额下2014-2020年我国地震灾害财政积累救灾支出负担的变动情况,并以此检验保险如何平滑财政波动风险的事例。研究结果表明:政府购买保险可以有效地平滑财政救灾支出的波动性风险,且波动性与保险赔付呈反向关系。在98%的置信区间与10%的赔付率下,100亿元保额的地震保险可以使财政积累救灾负担的上下界各有0.8%和1.2%的下降,而1 000亿元保额则可以基本消除财政救灾支出的波动性风险。文章研究表明,建立巨灾保险制度可以促进我国经济的稳定运行,有助于政府优化灾害管理、提高救灾效率、发挥市场功能和尽快建立巨灾保险体系。
Based on the background of the great earthquake disaster in our country which is easy to cause the fierce volatility of finance, this paper draws lessons from the internationally accepted insurance mechanism to replace the way of financial disaster relief. Based on the historical data of earthquake in our country and through the accumulation model of the expenditure of financial disaster relief in earthquake disaster, This paper examines the changes in the fiscal burden of relief funds accumulated by the earthquake disaster in our country from 2014 to 2020 under different insurance amounts and examines how the insurance smoothes the risk of financial fluctuations. The results show that government purchase of insurance can effectively smooth the volatility risk of financial disaster relief expenditures, and the volatility is inversely related to the insurance payment. Under the 98% confidence interval and the 10% reimbursement rate, the earthquake insurance with a guaranteed amount of 10 billion yuan can reduce both the upper and lower bounds of the financial burden on disaster relief by 0.8% and 1.2%, respectively. The basic elimination of the volatility of financial disaster relief spending risk. The research shows that the establishment of a catastrophe insurance system can promote the stable operation of our economy, help the government optimize disaster management, improve disaster relief efficiency, make full use of market functions and establish a catastrophe insurance system as soon as possible.