针对航空器飞行轨迹预测的随机线性混杂系统估计问题,提出一种状态相关模态切换的混合估计算法(SDTHE).该算法不仅解决了标准交互式多模型(IMM)算法似然函数为零均值高斯函数假设的缺陷,而且基于实时状态更新模态转移矩阵,使得飞行模态估计更为准确,从而提高飞行轨迹预测的精度.与标准交互式多模型算法相比,仿真结果表明了所提出算法的有效性和优越性. Aiming at the stochastic linear hybrid system estimation problem of aircraft trajectory prediction, a state-dependent mode switching hybrid estimation algorithm (SDTHE) is proposed, which not only solves the problem that the likelihood function of standard interactive multi-model (IMM) algorithm is zero mean Gaussian Function hypothesis and updating the modal transition matrix based on real-time state to make the flight modal estimation more accurate and improve the accuracy of the trajectory prediction.Compared with the standard interactive multi-model algorithm, the simulation results show that the proposed algorithm Effectiveness and superiority.