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根据60个地面基本气象台站1957~1990年逐日雪深、月平均气温、月降水量观测记录,用ARMA(p,q)模型检验了青藏高原积雪变化趋势,结果表明,高原积雪变化呈普遍增加趋势,与南极大陆及格陵兰冰盖表面雪积累率的增加相一致。青藏高原气温与降水的变化趋势也是增加的,积雪与冬季气温之间存在着负相关关系,而与冷季降水呈显著正相关。积雪的增加是由冷季降水的增加所引起的。
According to the daily snow depth, monthly mean temperature and monthly precipitation of 60 basic meteorological stations from 1957 to 1990, the change trend of snow in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was tested by ARMA (p, q) model. The results showed that the variation of snow in the plateau The general trend of increase is consistent with the increase in the rate of snow accumulation on the surface of ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland. The trend of temperature and precipitation in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau also increased. There was a negative correlation between the snow cover and the winter air temperature, but positively correlated with the precipitation in the cold season. The increase of snow cover is caused by the increase of precipitation in cold season.