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本文通过把制度分为内在制度和外在制度两个层级,并在此基础上利用SVAR模型对制度变迁与经济增长之间进行实证。通过脉冲响应函数发现随着时间推移制度变迁对经济增长的影响呈现出周期性波动态势,外在制度变迁对经济增长在制度变迁初期是正向效应,而内在制度则完全相反对经济增长是负向效应。内在制度变迁对经济增长的作用相较于外在制度变迁存在滞后性,同时外在制度变迁对于经济增长的贡献率也大于内在制度变迁。
This article divides the system into two levels: the internal system and the external system. Based on this, this paper uses the SVAR model to test the institutional change and economic growth. Through the impulse response function, it is found that over time the institutional changes have a cyclical fluctuation effect on the economic growth. The external institutional changes have a positive effect on the economic growth in the early period of institutional change, while the internal system is completely opposite to the negative on the economic growth effect. The effect of internal institutional change on economic growth is lagging behind that of external institutional changes, and the contribution of external institutional changes to economic growth is also greater than that of internal institutional changes.