脆弱性评价是系统风险评估的新方法,具有理论成熟、指标全面,结果贴合等优点。在对天然气管道风险研究基础上,建立起适合城市天然气管道系统的脆弱性评估指标体系。结合城市天然气管道脆弱性指标的取值特点,选择模糊综合评判方法,建立城市天然气管道系统的脆弱性评估数学模型,实现系统脆弱度计算和脆弱等级确定。并对北京市某段次高压天然气管道的指标进行调研取值,带入模型进行该管道的脆弱性评价,实现模型的实例应用和效果检验。 Vulnerability assessment is a new method of systematic risk assessment, with the advantages of mature theory, comprehensive indicators and good results. Based on the research on natural gas pipeline risk, a vulnerability assessment index system suitable for urban natural gas pipeline system is established. Combined with the characteristics of vulnerability index of natural gas pipeline in cities, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is selected to establish the mathematical model of vulnerability evaluation of urban natural gas pipeline system, and the calculation of system vulnerability and the determination of vulnerability level are achieved. The index of a certain high pressure natural gas pipeline in Beijing was investigated and investigated. The model was used to evaluate the vulnerability of the pipeline, and the example application and effectiveness test of the model were realized.