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随着气候变化,农业干旱直接威胁粮食安全.本文以陕西省为研究对象,基于自然灾害风险理论,综合考虑干旱灾害影响因素,从致灾因子的危险性、承灾体的暴露性、环境的脆弱性和地区的抗旱能力4个风险要素选取指标,采用层次分析法确定指标权重,构建自然灾害风险综合指标,分析2009—2013年陕西省农业干旱时空特征.结果表明:研究期间,陕北地区农业干旱风险略呈下降趋势;陕南地区呈急剧升高态势,以商洛市为甚;关中地区基本稳定,以咸阳市最高、西安市最低.陕西省农业干旱风险大体呈现从南向北逐渐递增现象.
As a result of climate change, agricultural drought directly threatens food security.Based on the natural disaster risk theory and comprehensive consideration of the factors affecting drought disaster in Shaanxi Province, this paper analyzes the risk factors of the disaster, including the risk of the hazard, the exposure of the disaster-bearing body, Vulnerability and drought resistance in the region to select four indicators of risk factors, the use of analytic hierarchy process to determine the index weight, build a comprehensive index of natural disaster risk, analysis of the spatial and temporal characteristics of agricultural drought in Shaanxi Province from 2009 to 2013. The results show that: during the study, The risk of drought in agriculture shows a slight downward trend; the area in southern Shaanxi shows a steep rise trend, especially in Shangluo City; the Guanzhong area is basically stable with the highest in Xianyang City and the lowest in Xi'an City. The risk of agricultural drought in Shaanxi Province generally increases gradually from south to north phenomenon.