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海平面变化是由于太阳、月球等几大行星的天体作用、地球本身作用、生物作用、大气作用和海洋作用及人为因素等叠加作用的结果。所以,海平面变化是许多变数中一个敏感的积分变量,或是各大领域系统耦合效应的一个组合函数。为此,可将上述各个方面的叠加作用和耦合影响称为“天地生耦合效应系统”。并据此建立了相应的日动型、气动型、水动型和地动型等概念模型,旨在研究几大作用之间的多重耦合效应和反馈机制。通过集合变量,采用了时段划分的方法进行定量分析,以确定各变量之间的联系性、有效性和相关性,初步获得地球自转速度是控制海平面变化的动力机制;世界海平面速率为+1.32±0.22 mm/a,中国海平面速率为+1.39±0.26mm/a。以CO2含量为气候指标,划分出了公元200年以来的八个冷段(冷期)。第Ⅷ冷段极大值大约出现在公元1850年前后,若按冷暖极值距200年计算,则由目前正在发展的暖期,将在公元2050年前后结束,而后开始降温;若按冷暖极值距250年间隔计算,将在公元2100年前后开始降温,彼时,世界海平面将上升+7～11±3.5 cm左右(在气候暖期的过程中),且其后海平面将呈下降趋势,与此同时,气候将进入下一个新的冷期(亦即第Ⅸ冷段)。
Sea level change is due to the superimposition of the celestial bodies of several major planets such as the sun and the moon, the earth itself, the biological action, the atmospheric action, the ocean action, and the human factor. Therefore, sea-level change is a sensitive integral variable in many variables or a combination of system coupling effects in various fields. To this end, the superposition and coupling effects of each of the above aspects can be referred to as the “Earth-Earth coupling effect system.” Based on this, the corresponding conceptual models of daily dynamic, aerodynamic, hydrodynamic and geotextile are established to study the multiple coupling effects and feedback mechanism between several major roles. Through the collection of variables, a time-division method was used to conduct quantitative analysis to determine the relationship, validity and relativity among variables. The preliminary finding that the Earth’s rotation speed is the driving force for controlling the sea-level change, the world sea-level rate is + 1.32 ± 0.22 mm / a, sea level rate of China is + 1.39 ± 0.26mm / a. Taking the CO2 content as the climatic index, eight cold periods (cold period) since200 AD are divided. The maximum value of the Ⅷ cold section occurs approximately around 1850 AD. If the extreme warm and cold values are calculated at 200 years, the current warm period under development will end around 2050 AD and begin to cool down. The value of 250 years apart will start to cool down around 2100, when the world’s sea level will rise by about + 7-11 ± 3.5 cm (during the warm climate), and the sea level will then decline At the same time, the climate will move on to the next new cold period (ie, the Ⅸ cold period).