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在《天津双桥咸水层井水位动态映震敏感条件与监视预报效能剖析》的基础上,本文采用较恰当的数学处理及合适的异常指标,由计算机自动识别出了1977年以来的18次异常。 根据异常—发震时间、井—震距、异常性质作了统计计算,得出了最佳发震时间为异常出现后87天至117天,最佳发震距离为井震距66公里至86公里。由异常幅度、面积、陡度特征及其与地震发生地点的关系,广泛地模拟专家依据本统计之外的地下水异常特征、异常井点位及其与断层的关系,给出了地点加议统计发震概率。正演检验表明,预测发震时间、地点、震级与实际发生的地震基本相符。
Based on the analysis of the sensitive conditions and the monitoring and forecasting effectiveness of the well water level in Shuangqiao saline water well in Tianjin, this paper uses the more appropriate mathematical treatment and appropriate anomaly indicators, and the computer automatically identifies 18 times since 1977 abnormal. According to the statistics of anomalous-onset time, well-seismic distance and anomalous nature, we found that the best occurrence time is 87 days to 117 days after occurrence of anomaly, and the optimal seismic distance is 66 km to 86 Km. Based on the characteristics of anomaly amplitude, area and steepness and its relation to the place where earthquakes occurred, we extensively simulate the relationship between groundwater anomalies, abnormal well locations and faults with experts according to the statistics. Seismological probability. Forward test shows that the prediction of the time, place and magnitude of earthquakes basically coincide with the actual earthquakes.