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碳市场作为一个新兴市场,研究其定价权归属问题对于全球碳市场的长远发展具有重要的现实意义。本文以配额市场为研究对象,利用最新发展的非线性Granger因果检验方法系统性地研究了全球碳市场的定价权归属问题,并从动态分析的视角探讨了全球碳市场价格传导的非线性演变轨迹。研究结果表明,欧盟碳市场在全球碳市场中居于主导地位,美国碳市场和新西兰碳市场相对次之,而中国碳市场的全球定价能力则相对较弱。从非线性动态传导机制看,欧盟碳市场的全球定价能力略有下降,美国碳市场和新西兰碳市场全球定价权相对稳定,而中国碳市场全球定价权略有上升。在此基础上,本文还进一步论证了非线性检验的必要性。最后,本文给出了有针对性的政策建议。
As an emerging market, studying the pricing attribution of carbon market is of great practical significance for the long-term development of the global carbon market. In this paper, the quota market is taken as the research object, and the latest development of nonlinear Granger causality test method is used to systematically study the pricing rights attribution of the global carbon market. From the perspective of dynamic analysis, the nonlinear evolution trajectory of global carbon market price transmission . The results show that the EU carbon market dominates the global carbon market, followed by the United States carbon market and New Zealand carbon market, while China’s carbon market has a relatively weaker global pricing power. From the viewpoint of nonlinear dynamic transmission mechanism, the global pricing power of the EU carbon market declined slightly while the global pricing power of the US carbon market and New Zealand carbon market was relatively stable while the global pricing power of China’s carbon market increased slightly. On this basis, this paper further demonstrates the necessity of nonlinear test. Finally, this article gives the targeted policy recommendations.