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以两参数月水量平衡模型为例,建立了用于模型不确定性分析的MOMM-GLUE方法,针对单目标参数率定的不足,采用基于MCMC方法的多目标SCEM-UA算法推求参数后验分布,应用GLUE法分析参数的敏感性与预报不确定性。并针对蒸发规律明显的季节性,将两参数模型的蒸发参数C按汛期与非汛期分解为三参数模型。结果表明,不同目标函数分析参数敏感性结果不同,较高后验密度的参数集并不十分敏感,有利于参数寻优;就区间估计而言,三参数模型优于两参数模型,但相应增加了参数不确定性。
Taking the two-parameter monthly water balance model as an example, a MOMM-GLUE method for model uncertainty analysis was established. According to the shortcomings of single-target parameter calibration, a multi-objective SCEM-UA algorithm based on MCMC method was used to estimate the posterior distribution of parameters , Using GLUE method to analyze the sensitivity of parameters and forecast uncertainty. According to the obvious seasonality of evaporation law, the evaporation parameter C of the two-parameter model is decomposed into three-parameter model according to flood season and non-flood season. The results show that the sensitivity of different objective function analysis parameters is different, and the parameter set of the higher posterior density is not very sensitive, which is advantageous to the parameter optimization. For the interval estimation, the three parameter model is better than the two parameter model, but the corresponding increase The parameter uncertainty.