论文部分内容阅读
利用技术经济学方法测算了中国核电及可再生能源等低碳电力技术的二氧化碳减排潜力和减排成本。研究结果表明,2020年低碳电力技术的累计装机容量将超过6×108 kw,年发电量达到2.3×1012 kwh时,占全国电力消费总量的30%左右,可替代煤炭6.6×108 tec,从而避免近20×108 t的CO2排放。但除水电、核电外,大部分低碳电力技术的减排成本处于200~700 CNY/t CO2的较高水平,为低碳电力技术的示范推广及大规模应用带来经济障碍。因此,政府应制定合理的电力发展政策和规划,尽快降低可再生电力技术的发电成本、解除不稳定电力大规模并网的技术障碍,从而促进低碳电力技术的快速、健康发展。
Using the method of technical economics, the potential of carbon dioxide emission reduction and emission reduction of low-carbon power technologies such as nuclear power and renewable energy in China are estimated. The results show that the accumulated installed capacity of low-carbon power technology will exceed 6 × 108 kw in 2020 and about 30% of the total electricity consumption in China when the annual power generation reaches 2.3 × 1012 kwh, which can replace 6.6 × 108 tec of coal, Thus avoiding nearly 20 × 108 t of CO2 emissions. However, with the exception of hydropower and nuclear power, most of the low-carbon electricity technologies have a high emission reduction cost of 200 ~ 700 CNY / t CO2, which brings economic obstacles to the demonstration and large-scale application of low-carbon electricity technologies. Therefore, the government should formulate reasonable power development policies and plans, reduce the power generation costs of renewable power technologies as soon as possible, and remove the technical obstacles to the large-scale integration of unstable power so as to promote the rapid and healthy development of low-carbon power technologies.