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本文基于文献研究、有向无环图(DAG)与VAR模型,探讨了由系统性风险与宏观因素波动引起的企业外部融资约束对美国出口波动的影响。我们发现,系统性企业外部融资约束对整体出口水平的影响,是通过对少数占主导地位的大型企业的影响来实现的:尽管系统性外部融资约束与出口波动之间存在长期的相互影响关系,但当期系统性外部融资约束却是引起出口波动的主要原因;系统性外部融资约束的改善的确能够促进出口水平的提高。
Based on literature research, Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) and VAR models, this paper explores the impact of external financing constraints on US export volatility caused by systemic risk and macroeconomic fluctuations. We find that the impact of SOE external financing constraints on the overall export level is achieved through the impact on a few dominant large enterprises: Despite the long-term interaction between systemic external financing constraints and export volatility, However, the current system of external financing constraints is the main cause of export fluctuations; the improvement of systemic external financing constraints can indeed promote the improvement of export level.