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风险提示一:能源依赖美国能源信息局的数据显示,2013年9月,中国超过美国成为全球第一大石油进口国。在美国石油产量逐渐上升而石油消费趋于停滞的同时,中国的能源需求不断增加,对海外能源的依赖日益严重。依赖从国际大宗商品市场购买石油可能会使中国经济暴露在价格风险之下——石油出口国的政治动荡、国际市场需求的上升、能源运输环节的变动都可能引起油价飙升。此外,能源问题几乎总是与地缘政治甚至民族情绪联系在一起——比如近期发生的巴西油田竞标抗议,这也让中国的“走出去”能源战略面临更多的不确定性。
Risk Tip I: Energy Dependency According to the Bureau of Energy Information of the United States, in September 2013, China overtook the United States as the world’s largest oil importer. While oil production in the United States is on the rise and oil consumption is at a standstill, China’s energy needs are steadily increasing and its dependence on overseas energy is worsening. Reliance on buying oil from international commodity markets may expose China’s economy to price risk - political instability in oil-exporting countries, rising demand in international markets and changes in the energy transport sector are likely to trigger soaring oil prices. In addition, the energy issue is almost always associated with geopolitics and even ethnic sentiment - such as the recent bidding for protests in Brazil’s oil fields, which puts China’s “Going Global” energy strategy even more uncertain.