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森林资源科学管理的实质是内涵扩大林业生产,这比外延扩大林业生产,例如造林,见效快,增益大,因而更为重要。森林资源动态预测是其科学管理的前提和基础。采伐决策是其科学管理的关键。本文运用控制理论建立森林资源系统状态方程,从经济效益考虑建立代价方程,用回归分析,建立森林资源结构方程和林木各参数:D(直径)、V(单株林积)、P_0(直径生长率(dD/dt)·(1/D))的回归方程。求解这些方程,得到林木成熟径级D_s,可伐向量N_c。用N_c中的采伐系数K,控制实际采伐。由N_c出发,预测森林资源活立木总蓄积 (m~3)、可伐蓄积(m~3)、株数按径级概率分布、材积按径级概率分布、当年直接效益、后续直接效益。 用D_s和K作为控制采伐决策参数,管理方便,将森林资源管理由追踪制裁型转变为预测导向型,较之以前用林木年轮作为控制采伐决策参数,更为科学。
The essence of scientific management of forest resources is that the connotation of expanding forestry production is more important than that of expanding forestry production by extension, such as afforestation, achieving quick returns and large gains. The dynamic prediction of forest resources is the precondition and foundation of its scientific management. Logging decision-making is the key to its scientific management. In this paper, the state equation of forest resources system is established by using control theory, and the cost equation is considered from the economic benefits. With regression analysis, the structural equation of forest resources and the parameters of forest are established: D (diameter), V (single plantation), P_0 Rate (dD / dt) · (1 / D)) regression equation. Solve these equations, get the tree mature diameter class D_s, kava cutting vector N_c. Use the harvesting factor K in N_c to control the actual harvesting. Starting from Nc, the total reserve (m ~ 3) and kp (m ~ 3) of forest standing timber are predicted. The number of trees is distributed according to the path of the grade. The volume of the timber is distributed according to the grade probability, the direct benefit of the year and the subsequent direct benefit. Using D_s and K as the decision-making parameters for controlling logging, it is more convenient to manage and change the management of forest resources from tracking and sanctioning to predictive-oriented, which is more scientific than the previous use of tree rings as control logging decision-making parameters.