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英国经济学家情报社(EIU)日前对全球工业原料价格的走势作了最新预测。据 EIU 预测,在2003～2004年间。全球工业原料的价格将继续回升,其涨幅将分别增至4%和5.4%。对于未来全球石油的走势,EIU 专家认为,由于美国对伊拉克开战所引发的战争忧患日益加剧,加上受罢工影响委内瑞拉被迫减产和中断石油供给,因此2002年年末全球原油价格一路攀升。按照 EIU 的预测,2003年中,如果战争危机能够得以化解,如果全球石油供给能够重新过剩的话,那么2003年全球石油价格有望保持基本稳定,每桶石油的价格将在24.5美元上下,而到2004年全球石油价格则有望大幅下跌,跌至每桶20美元以下。
British Economic Intelligence Agency (EIU) recently on the global trend of industrial raw materials prices made the latest forecast. According to EIU’s forecast, between 2003 and 2004. The prices of global industrial raw materials will continue to rise, with increases of 4% and 5.4% respectively. For future global oil trends, EIU experts believe global crude oil prices have risen in late 2002 as a result of the increasing war-torn war triggered by the U.S. war on Iraq and the forced labor cuts and disruptions in Venezuela’s oil supply caused by the strike. According to the EIU’s forecast, if the crisis of the war can be resolved in mid-2003, if the global oil supply can be resumed, the global oil price in 2003 is expected to remain basically stable. The price of oil per barrel will rise from around 24.5 U.S. dollars until 2004 The global oil price is expected to drop sharply in the year, dropping below 20 U.S. dollars a barrel.