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为了预测恐怖分子的粗糙核装置袭击效应,提供预警方案,该文给出了粗糙核装置地爆袭击时的光辐射、冲击波、早期核辐射等瞬时效应和放射性沾染效应的模拟计算方法。采用C语言对此计算方法进行了编程,模拟计算了10kt TNT当量地爆的情况,并与已有软件Hotspot的相同当量空爆算例进行了对比。冲击波和早期核辐射造成的杀伤半径与Hotspot的结果基本吻合,光辐射和放射性沾染结果相差不超过一个数量级。考虑空爆和地爆的差别,可以认为得到了合理的模拟结果。该方法可以应用于粗糙核装置恐怖袭击效应的预测,具有一定的现实意义。
In order to predict the attack effect of rough nuclear devices of terrorists, an early warning scheme is provided. The simulation calculation method of instantaneous effects such as light radiation, shock wave, early nuclear radiation and radioactive contamination effects of rough nuclear devices is given. The calculation method is programmed in C language and the equivalent explosion of 10kt TNT is simulated and compared with the equivalent equivalent blasting example of the existing software Hotspot. The blast radius caused by shock wave and early nuclear radiation basically agrees with the result of Hotspot, and the difference between light radiation and radioactive contamination is no more than one order of magnitude. Considering the difference between air blast and ground blast, we can think that a reasonable simulation result is obtained. The method can be applied to the prediction of the terror attack effect of rough nuclear devices, and has certain practical significance.