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由于产能释放快于需求增长,未来几年内,国内乘用车市场都将是供过于求,而制造商面临严峻的成本压力、利润压力。商用车受固定资产投资回落和汽车消费贷款趋紧的影响,产销增速继续回落。政府可能在消费税、燃油税、成品油价格机制、进出口政策等多方面给予管制,政策仍将是最大的不确定因素。未来几年出口可能成为行业增长的动力,出口的主导产品将集中于零部件、大型客车、低档乘用车领域。
Due to the release of capacity faster than demand growth, the domestic passenger car market will be oversupplied in the next few years, while manufacturers face severe cost pressure and profit pressure. Affected by the drop in investment in fixed assets and the tightening of auto consumer loans, the sales volume of commercial vehicles continued to drop. The government may control the consumption tax, fuel tax, refined oil price mechanism, import and export policies and other aspects, and the policy will remain the biggest uncertainty. Exports in the next few years may become the driving force behind the growth of the industry. The leading export products will be concentrated in the fields of spare parts, large passenger cars and low-end passenger cars.