论文部分内容阅读
林地是维护生态安全,实现区域可持续发展的根本基础资源。林地变化可能导致一些生态环境问题,包括土壤侵蚀,水资源短缺,干旱加剧以及生物多样性的丧失。本文以景观生态学和逻辑回归模型为基础,探讨了京津冀地区1985-2000期间林地变化的时空格局及其影响因素。格局分析结果表明,林地景观破碎化正在下降和林地形状变得越来越规则。通过建立Logistic回归模型,这项研究旨在探讨这一区域1985-2000期间林地变化的重要变量。对于京津冀地区1985-2000期间林地变化而言,土壤有机质含量,坡度(<5°),到最近村庄的距离以及人均国内生产总值是最重要的解释变量。研究表明,空间异质性会影响到林地变化的逻辑回归模型的可预测性。
Woodland is the fundamental basic resource for safeguarding ecological security and realizing regional sustainable development. Changes in woodland can lead to a number of ecological and environmental issues including soil erosion, water scarcity, increased drought and loss of biodiversity. Based on the landscape ecology and the logistic regression model, this paper discusses the spatio-temporal patterns of woodland changes and their influencing factors during the period from 1985 to 2000 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The pattern analysis shows that fragmentation of forest landscape is declining and the shape of woodland becomes more and more regular. By establishing a Logistic regression model, this study aimed to explore important variables in forestland change during the period 1985-2000 in the region. For the change of forestland in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1985 to 2000, the content of soil organic matter, slope (<5 °), distance to the nearest village and per capita GDP are the most important explanatory variables. Studies have shown that spatial heterogeneity can affect the predictability of logistic regression models of forestland change.