香港整体货物出口在今年第二季度显著反弹。鉴于去年下半年的比较基准较低,加上区内需求回升,香港出口的价格竞争力亦随美元转弱而有所改善,预期货物出口在未来数月将继续有显著增长。所以,即使外来需求在未来可能有所转弱,今年整体货物出口的预测实质增长仍有颇大幅度的上调,由1.6%上调至今次修订的5.4%。在整体货物出口中,转口的预测实质升幅由2.5%上调至7%,但港产品出口的预测实质跌幅则由6.5%向下修订至8%。由于现时预期转口有较快增长,预测今年货物进口会实质上升4.9%,明显较预测的0.4%增幅为高。 Overall Hong Kong’s exports of goods rebounded notably in the second quarter of this year. Given the relatively low base in the second half of last year and the rebound in demand in the region, the price competitiveness of Hong Kong’s exports has also improved with the weaker US dollar. Export of goods is expected to continue to show significant growth in the coming months. Therefore, even though external demand may be weakened in the future, the projected real growth in total exports of goods this year will still have a substantial increase from 1.6% to 5.4% as revised this time. In the overall exports of goods, the forecast real increase in re-exports was raised from 2.5% to 7%, but the forecast real decline in the export of domestic products was revised downwards from 6.5% to 8%. With the rapid growth of re-exports expected now, the import of goods this year will increase by 4.9% in real terms, significantly higher than the forecast of 0.4%.