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该文针对传统地震危险性分析方法面向多场点系统(诸如某一区域内多个建筑、某个基础设施网络)整体地震风险计算时的局限性,提出了基于概率场景的多场点地震风险分析方法。该方法首先结合地震潜在震源的震级概率分布函数以及地震动预测公式,并考虑地震动空间相关性模型,通过随机模拟生成大量的概率地震情景(地震动分布图),在地震情景集及相应概率信息的基础上对一些典型的多场点系统,例如独立多场点系统、串联多场点系统、并联多场点系统等进行了系统风险分析。并通过对比分析单场点与多场点系统的地震风险,对比分析考虑和不考虑地震动估计误差空间相关性两种情况下的多场点系统地震风险,最终得出了三种类型多场点系统地震风险表现的不同特征。结果表明:不考虑空间相关性会导致独立多场点系统高估低水平损失的概率、低估高水平损失的概率;会导致串联系统风险估计整体偏高;会导致并联系统风险估计整体偏低。
Aiming at the limitation of traditional method of seismic hazard analysis in multi-point system (such as multiple buildings in a certain area and some infrastructure network), this paper proposes a multi-site point-of-earthquake risk method based on probability scenario Analytical method. Based on the earthquake probability distribution function and the earthquake prediction formula of potential earthquakes and considering the model of spatial correlation of ground motions, a large number of probabilistic seismic scenarios (ground motion maps) are generated by stochastic simulation. Based on the information of some typical multi-point systems, such as independent multi-point system, multi-point system in series, parallel multi-point system, such as a systematic risk analysis. By comparing and analyzing the seismic risk of single-point and multi-point systems, the multi-point system seismic risk under two cases of considering and not considering the spatial correlation of the ground motion estimation error is obtained. Finally, three types of multi-field Different Characteristics of Point System Earthquake Risk Performance. The results show that, regardless of the spatial correlation, the probability of an independent multi-point system overestimating low level losses and the probability of underestimating high level losses will lead to the overall system risk estimation being too high and the overall system risk estimation will be low.