论文部分内容阅读
运用省级面板门限模型研究了2003年~2014年我国公共投资与经济增长的关系,发现公共投资与经济增长之间存在非线性双重门限效应。在人均公共投资存量低于第一门限值1.834万元/人时,公共投资的增加对经济增长呈抑制作用,当人均公共投资存量跨越第一门限值1.834万元/人且不足第二门限值4.261万元/人时,公共投资的增加对经济增长呈显著的正向促进作用;当公共投资存量跨越第二门限值4.261万元/人后,公共投资的增加对经济增长虽然呈显著的正向促进作用,但效应明显降低。根据研究结论,提出了优化公共投资结构、合理高效加快城镇化进程、加大科技教育投入、积极推进市场化进程等政策建议。
By using provincial panel threshold model, this paper studies the relationship between public investment and economic growth in China from 2003 to 2014 and finds that there exists a nonlinear double-threshold effect between public investment and economic growth. When the per capita public investment stock is less than the first threshold of 18.34 thousand yuan / person, the increase of public investment has a negative effect on economic growth. When the per capita public investment stock surpasses the first threshold of 18.34 thousand yuan / person and is less than the second The threshold of 4.261 million yuan / person, the increase of public investment on the economic growth was significantly positive role in promoting; when the public investment stock exceeds the second threshold of 4.261 million yuan / person, the increase of public investment on economic growth though Showed a significant positive effect, but the effect was significantly reduced. According to the conclusion of the study, some policy suggestions such as optimizing the public investment structure, accelerating the process of urbanization reasonably and efficiently, increasing investment in science and technology education, and actively promoting marketization are put forward.