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“冷暖晴雨早先知”，天气预报己成为普通百姓最关注的气象服务内容。现在，一些经济运行部门和精明的商家也已经开始利用气象服务，指导他们的生产经营，获得了超乎想象的效益。
1997年夏，我国北方出现了罕见的旱灾，气温的猛增，空调一时供不应求。而海尔空调运筹帷幄，产品早巳源源不断地运到北方商场。在黄金销售季节，海尔空调的销售额猛增，在七月创下了日售1400台的记录，其市场份额占有率也由原来的20％陡增到50％。据透露，其赢得市场的秘密武器，便是该企业年初从气象部门购买了针对空调市场的专项预测资料。
有些商家，却由于忽视了气象信息，而吃尽了苦头。今年一月中旬，上海、北京、天津、兰州、武汉、南京等地气温突破新中国成立以来同期的最高值。“数九寒天”里春意融融，许多商家没有及时调整销售的商品品种，结果往年同期热销的大衣、羽绒服、毛衣等商品销售额普遍大幅度下降，一些商家不得已“挥泪”减价，以减轻库存压力。“厄尔尼诺”带来的暖冬，给人们生动地上了一堂气象与经济的教育课。
在西方经济学界，有一个著名的德尔菲气象定律。该定律说，气象投入与产出比为1：98，即投资l元，可以得到98元的经济回报。气象投资已越来越成为有利可图的新热点。近二十年来，许多国家气象服务从无偿免费的公益性服务逐步向有偿收费的商业性服务发展，并出现了越来越多的私营气象公司，各种有偿专业气象服务无所不至。例如，德国气象公司开发出啤酒指数，供啤酒厂作调整产量的重要参数；日本则根据“夏季30摄氏度以上的气温多一天，空调销量即增加4万台”的现象，开发出空调指数。此外，一些国家还推出了乘车指数、紫外线指数、穿衣指数等等。这些都时刻指导着各类企业的生产经营计划。
我国的气象服务经历了一个逐步发展的过程。在1985年以前，气象部门的工作重点主要放在灾害性预报上，多强调为政府、为工价提供公益性服务，忽略了市场服务的开发，专业预报信息很少。随着我国经济的迅速发展，一些工商企业亟需专业化的、针对性更强的特殊气象预报和气象情报及相关咨询服务。1985年，国务院办公厅转发了国家气象局《关于气象部门开展有偿专业服务和综合经营的报告》，从而拉开我国气象服务商业化的序幕。
据业内界人士介绍，现在国内的很多气象局都有两个气象台，一个是为政府部门和普通市民提供决策服务和公益服务；另一个专业气象台，则根据各行业对气象信息的不同需求，提供专业气象服务，指导客户的生产与经营。从气象服务的类型看，有一年天气趋势展望，有季报、月报、旬报、周报、还有12小时到3天的短时预报等。
据国家权威机构最新调查显示，中国的工商企业对气象服务的投入产出比约为1：40，而广东这一比例将超过1：100。
有关人士指出，目前我国的气象商业性服务还处于幼稚阶段。服务品种少，服务规模小，服务层次低，缺乏“拳头”产品和“龙头”实体。而有的部门对气象服务重视程度依然不够，—些企业愿意拿出十万、上百万作广告，也不愿意投资几千元、万把元购买专项气象服务。据统计，1998年，许多中西部省区的气象专项服务收入还不到300万元，就是在经济较发达的江苏省也不过约1200万元。经过这几年的发展，2001年商业性气象服务创收只在1亿元左右。而在日本，仅WNT气象信息服务有限公司一年的气象收入就约合3亿美元。在美国，各类气象公司多达上百家，气象服务通过电视、报刊及网络吸引着数以亿计的眼球，早巳成为一大产业。美国的电视天气频道1999年的总估价已超过10亿美元。显然，我国巨大的气象服务市场亟待开掘。
值得重视的是，国外商业性气象服务公司也开始抢滩中国气象服务市场。据悉，日本公司已经占据了上海、广州的大部分远洋航运公司的气象业务。美国、英国的一些跨国气象服务公司也开始进入国内市场，美国气象导航公司已在上海等地开办了自己的代表处。尽管按照法律规定，国外气象服务公司不能在中国采集气象数据，但根据世界气象组织的相关规则，各国应无偿提供基础气象数据，而这已足够其使用。届时，我国的专业气象服务将面临巨大的挑战。
从国际气象市场发展的成功经验看，在我国，成立专业的气象服务公司是大势所趋。这将有利于促进气象部门积极主动研究市场、研究客户需求，努力开发适销对路的气象服务产品，最大限度地利用气象资源，而且有助于改变气象服务组织形式、运行机制和管理方式，适应市场经济的环节。2000年1月1日《中华人民共和国气象法》正式实施，该法第三条规定：气象台、站在确保公益性气象无偿服务的前提下，可以依法开展有偿气象服务。这为我国气象服务的发展指引了方向。国家有关气象机构也正在制订《气象有偿服务条例》和《商业性气象服务管理办法》等相关法规，为商业性气象组织和个人进入市场创造条件。据报载，在上海，该市首批从事气象服务经纪人将在年内上岗。气象经纪人的出现，将促进气象用户与服务实体之间的沟通，无疑也为中国商业性气象服务的开拓者有益的探索。
气象服务市场是一个亟待开掘的金矿，随着更多的国内企业逐渐接受气象服务的理念，方兴未艾的中国气象服务业将大有作为！
Meteorolgical Service a "Gold Mine" Yet to be tapped
BVDingJianwen
The story goes back to the summer of 1997 when temperature soared to the highest in a century,prompting a panic buying of refrigerators in almost all north China cities. Refrigerator producers werecaught unprepared, except Haier, the country‘s leading manufacturer of home appliances, which hadbeen alerted to the need to increase its stock by a long-term weather forecast it had bought. In July, thehottest month, Haier sold a record 1,200 refrigerators per day, and the company‘s share of the domesticrefrigerators market shot up from 20% to well over 50%.
In mid-January of this year, it was producers and dealers of down garments, woolen shirts andother heavy clothing who were to suffer for neglect of meteorological information. The weather wasabnormally warm in Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Lanzhou, Wuhan, Najinig and other major cities, dueto El Nino or the "global warming effect" as some scientists believed. Had weather been normal, salesof warm clothing should have been hot at this time of the year. Unsold heavy clothing kept piling upand, unprepared, many companies had to sell at below-the-cost prices.
Stories of this sort are numerous, sufficient to testify to the value of meteorological services toindustries and commerce. Foreign experts put the input-output ratio at 1:98 for such services - if youuse one dollar to buy the kind of meteorological information needed in your business, the economicbenefits thus generated in your interest will be valued at 98 dollars. In China, however, commercial useof meteorological information has just begun. The "gold mine", so to speak, is yet to be tapped.
Meteorological services had been offered free of charge, almost exclusively meant for use by thegeneral public and by the government to facilitate its decision making, until 1985 when the StateCouncil, the central government, approved a SMA report requesting permission for paid services. Sincethen, meteorological stations in some parts of China have come to be divided into two types - those thatcontinue to offer free services to the general public and the government and those that serve the specialneeds of different industries. According to a latest CMA report, for subscribers to special meteorologicalservices across China, the input-output ratio averages 1:40 and, for those in Guangdong Province,south China, it is 1:100.
Companies are now able to order forecasts on changes of weather within a year, a quarter, amonth, a week, 24 hours, 12 hours or three hours and, when necessary, even real-time weather reports.Nevertheless, commercial meteorological services, taken as a whole, are still in the infantile stage ofdevelopment, limited in variety relative to those available in developed countries. Most companieshave a faint idea of meteorological services and their importance. They wouldn‘t hesitate to spend amillion yuan having their products or services advertised, while unwilling to pay a few thousand yuanfor meteorological information. In 1998, the revenue from sales of meteorological services averagedjust a few million yuan for stations in many provinces and autonomous regions in western China. Evenfor those in Jiangsu, a best developed province, it was a mere 12 million yuan. In contrast, the WNTMeteorological Service Co. of Japan has been able to reap US$300 million (US$2.41 billion) in annualprofits. As in Japan, meteorological services in the United States have long developed into a mega-dollar industry through cooperation with the mass media.
What also merits attention is the fact that foreign meteorological service companies are alreadytaking steps to make inroads onto the Chinese market. A Japanese company, for example, is offeringmeteorological services for most of the shipping operators based in Shanghai and Guangzhou.
The "gold mine", so to speak, is huge. It is now time for meteorological services to get organizedand develop themselves into a profitable business.
1997年夏，我国北方出现了罕见的旱灾，气温的猛增，空调一时供不应求。而海尔空调运筹帷幄，产品早巳源源不断地运到北方商场。在黄金销售季节，海尔空调的销售额猛增，在七月创下了日售1400台的记录，其市场份额占有率也由原来的20％陡增到50％。据透露，其赢得市场的秘密武器，便是该企业年初从气象部门购买了针对空调市场的专项预测资料。
有些商家，却由于忽视了气象信息，而吃尽了苦头。今年一月中旬，上海、北京、天津、兰州、武汉、南京等地气温突破新中国成立以来同期的最高值。“数九寒天”里春意融融，许多商家没有及时调整销售的商品品种，结果往年同期热销的大衣、羽绒服、毛衣等商品销售额普遍大幅度下降，一些商家不得已“挥泪”减价，以减轻库存压力。“厄尔尼诺”带来的暖冬，给人们生动地上了一堂气象与经济的教育课。
在西方经济学界，有一个著名的德尔菲气象定律。该定律说，气象投入与产出比为1：98，即投资l元，可以得到98元的经济回报。气象投资已越来越成为有利可图的新热点。近二十年来，许多国家气象服务从无偿免费的公益性服务逐步向有偿收费的商业性服务发展，并出现了越来越多的私营气象公司，各种有偿专业气象服务无所不至。例如，德国气象公司开发出啤酒指数，供啤酒厂作调整产量的重要参数；日本则根据“夏季30摄氏度以上的气温多一天，空调销量即增加4万台”的现象，开发出空调指数。此外，一些国家还推出了乘车指数、紫外线指数、穿衣指数等等。这些都时刻指导着各类企业的生产经营计划。
我国的气象服务经历了一个逐步发展的过程。在1985年以前，气象部门的工作重点主要放在灾害性预报上，多强调为政府、为工价提供公益性服务，忽略了市场服务的开发，专业预报信息很少。随着我国经济的迅速发展，一些工商企业亟需专业化的、针对性更强的特殊气象预报和气象情报及相关咨询服务。1985年，国务院办公厅转发了国家气象局《关于气象部门开展有偿专业服务和综合经营的报告》，从而拉开我国气象服务商业化的序幕。
据业内界人士介绍，现在国内的很多气象局都有两个气象台，一个是为政府部门和普通市民提供决策服务和公益服务；另一个专业气象台，则根据各行业对气象信息的不同需求，提供专业气象服务，指导客户的生产与经营。从气象服务的类型看，有一年天气趋势展望，有季报、月报、旬报、周报、还有12小时到3天的短时预报等。
据国家权威机构最新调查显示，中国的工商企业对气象服务的投入产出比约为1：40，而广东这一比例将超过1：100。
有关人士指出，目前我国的气象商业性服务还处于幼稚阶段。服务品种少，服务规模小，服务层次低，缺乏“拳头”产品和“龙头”实体。而有的部门对气象服务重视程度依然不够，—些企业愿意拿出十万、上百万作广告，也不愿意投资几千元、万把元购买专项气象服务。据统计，1998年，许多中西部省区的气象专项服务收入还不到300万元，就是在经济较发达的江苏省也不过约1200万元。经过这几年的发展，2001年商业性气象服务创收只在1亿元左右。而在日本，仅WNT气象信息服务有限公司一年的气象收入就约合3亿美元。在美国，各类气象公司多达上百家，气象服务通过电视、报刊及网络吸引着数以亿计的眼球，早巳成为一大产业。美国的电视天气频道1999年的总估价已超过10亿美元。显然，我国巨大的气象服务市场亟待开掘。
值得重视的是，国外商业性气象服务公司也开始抢滩中国气象服务市场。据悉，日本公司已经占据了上海、广州的大部分远洋航运公司的气象业务。美国、英国的一些跨国气象服务公司也开始进入国内市场，美国气象导航公司已在上海等地开办了自己的代表处。尽管按照法律规定，国外气象服务公司不能在中国采集气象数据，但根据世界气象组织的相关规则，各国应无偿提供基础气象数据，而这已足够其使用。届时，我国的专业气象服务将面临巨大的挑战。
从国际气象市场发展的成功经验看，在我国，成立专业的气象服务公司是大势所趋。这将有利于促进气象部门积极主动研究市场、研究客户需求，努力开发适销对路的气象服务产品，最大限度地利用气象资源，而且有助于改变气象服务组织形式、运行机制和管理方式，适应市场经济的环节。2000年1月1日《中华人民共和国气象法》正式实施，该法第三条规定：气象台、站在确保公益性气象无偿服务的前提下，可以依法开展有偿气象服务。这为我国气象服务的发展指引了方向。国家有关气象机构也正在制订《气象有偿服务条例》和《商业性气象服务管理办法》等相关法规，为商业性气象组织和个人进入市场创造条件。据报载，在上海，该市首批从事气象服务经纪人将在年内上岗。气象经纪人的出现，将促进气象用户与服务实体之间的沟通，无疑也为中国商业性气象服务的开拓者有益的探索。
气象服务市场是一个亟待开掘的金矿，随着更多的国内企业逐渐接受气象服务的理念，方兴未艾的中国气象服务业将大有作为！
Meteorolgical Service a "Gold Mine" Yet to be tapped
BVDingJianwen
The story goes back to the summer of 1997 when temperature soared to the highest in a century,prompting a panic buying of refrigerators in almost all north China cities. Refrigerator producers werecaught unprepared, except Haier, the country‘s leading manufacturer of home appliances, which hadbeen alerted to the need to increase its stock by a long-term weather forecast it had bought. In July, thehottest month, Haier sold a record 1,200 refrigerators per day, and the company‘s share of the domesticrefrigerators market shot up from 20% to well over 50%.
In mid-January of this year, it was producers and dealers of down garments, woolen shirts andother heavy clothing who were to suffer for neglect of meteorological information. The weather wasabnormally warm in Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Lanzhou, Wuhan, Najinig and other major cities, dueto El Nino or the "global warming effect" as some scientists believed. Had weather been normal, salesof warm clothing should have been hot at this time of the year. Unsold heavy clothing kept piling upand, unprepared, many companies had to sell at below-the-cost prices.
Stories of this sort are numerous, sufficient to testify to the value of meteorological services toindustries and commerce. Foreign experts put the input-output ratio at 1:98 for such services - if youuse one dollar to buy the kind of meteorological information needed in your business, the economicbenefits thus generated in your interest will be valued at 98 dollars. In China, however, commercial useof meteorological information has just begun. The "gold mine", so to speak, is yet to be tapped.
Meteorological services had been offered free of charge, almost exclusively meant for use by thegeneral public and by the government to facilitate its decision making, until 1985 when the StateCouncil, the central government, approved a SMA report requesting permission for paid services. Sincethen, meteorological stations in some parts of China have come to be divided into two types - those thatcontinue to offer free services to the general public and the government and those that serve the specialneeds of different industries. According to a latest CMA report, for subscribers to special meteorologicalservices across China, the input-output ratio averages 1:40 and, for those in Guangdong Province,south China, it is 1:100.
Companies are now able to order forecasts on changes of weather within a year, a quarter, amonth, a week, 24 hours, 12 hours or three hours and, when necessary, even real-time weather reports.Nevertheless, commercial meteorological services, taken as a whole, are still in the infantile stage ofdevelopment, limited in variety relative to those available in developed countries. Most companieshave a faint idea of meteorological services and their importance. They wouldn‘t hesitate to spend amillion yuan having their products or services advertised, while unwilling to pay a few thousand yuanfor meteorological information. In 1998, the revenue from sales of meteorological services averagedjust a few million yuan for stations in many provinces and autonomous regions in western China. Evenfor those in Jiangsu, a best developed province, it was a mere 12 million yuan. In contrast, the WNTMeteorological Service Co. of Japan has been able to reap US$300 million (US$2.41 billion) in annualprofits. As in Japan, meteorological services in the United States have long developed into a mega-dollar industry through cooperation with the mass media.
What also merits attention is the fact that foreign meteorological service companies are alreadytaking steps to make inroads onto the Chinese market. A Japanese company, for example, is offeringmeteorological services for most of the shipping operators based in Shanghai and Guangzhou.
The "gold mine", so to speak, is huge. It is now time for meteorological services to get organizedand develop themselves into a profitable business.