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纽约商业交易所汽油期货是美国发展较为成熟的成品油期货品种之一,其在预测未来汽油价格、指导生产经营和减少价格波动风险方面发挥着重要作用。本文采用Garbade-Silber模型等方法对纽约商业交易所汽油期货价格发现功能进行检验,结果表明:美国汽油期货与现货价格存在长期均衡关系,汽油期货价格引导现货价格,汽油期货的价格发现功能为68%。随着我国成品油定价机制市场化程度的加深以及成品油价格形成机制的不断完善,我国亟需成立成品油期货市场以平抑市场价格波动带来的风险。
New York Mercantile Exchange Gasoline futures are one of the more mature refined oil futures markets in the United States and play an important role in predicting future gasoline prices, guiding production operations and reducing the risk of price volatility. In this paper, Garbade-Silber model and other methods to test the New York Mercantile Exchange, gasoline futures price discovery function test results show that: there is a long-term equilibrium between the US gasoline futures and spot prices, gasoline futures prices to guide the spot price, the price of gasoline futures discovery function 68 %. With the deepening of marketization of China’s refined oil pricing mechanism and the continuous improvement of the mechanism of refined oil price formation, it is urgent for China to set up the refined oil futures market in order to stabilize the risks brought by market price fluctuations.