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在目前的供需格局下,预计在今年2季度甚至3季度国际木浆供应仍将偏紧,木浆价格难以回落。由于今年国内新增纸和纸板产能较大,而需求难以相应提升,决定了纸企议价空间有限,因此随着木浆和废纸两大原材料价格上涨,纸企利润空间将受进一步挤压。预计2010年造纸行业利润率难以延续2009年逐季回升态势,综合毛利率水平将低于2009年下半年。而在人民币升值预期较强的情况下,造纸行业或将受益于进口原材料购买力的提升和较低的出口依存度。
Under the current pattern of supply and demand, the international supply of wood pulp is expected to remain tight in the second quarter and even the third quarter of this year, and the price of wood pulp is hard to come down. Due to the large capacity of new paper and paperboard in China this year, while the demand is hard to be increased correspondingly, the space for bargaining prices of paper enterprises is limited. Therefore, with the rising prices of the two major raw materials, such as wood pulp and waste paper, profit margin of paper enterprises will be further squeezed. Expected in 2010 the profitability of the paper industry is difficult to continue the trend of quarter by quarter in 2009, the consolidated gross profit margin will be lower than the second half of 2009. In the case of strong appreciation of the renminbi, the paper industry may benefit from the purchasing power of imported raw materials and lower export dependence.