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一、问题的提出 浙东海岸为东海沿岸遭受台风袭击严重的地段之一.而台风增水所导致的暴潮水位往往又是造成灾害的主要原因.因此,研制或改进出一种适应该地区台风增水的预报技术,并使之投入具体的预报业务,仍是当前一个迫切的研究课题. 为此,我们在研究了“Pore模式”的基础上,结合我国具体情况,设计了东海海平面气压网格用于热带风暴(台风)增水的预报,建立一种多港口且具一定时效的预报模式.本文以浙东沿岸两个港口为例,作了初步检验,结果较好.
First, the issue raised The east coast of the East China Sea is one of the areas hit by the typhoon on the coast of the East China Sea, and the typhoon caused by increased typhoon water level is often the main cause of disasters .Therefore, to develop or adapt to the region Therefore, based on the study of “Pore model” and based on our country’s specific conditions, we designed the sea level of the East China Sea The pressure grid is used to predict the increase of tropical storm (typhoon), and to establish a multi-port forecasting model with certain aging effect.This paper takes two ports along the eastern coast of Zhejiang as an example, and conducts preliminary tests with good results.