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本文基于封闭条件下一般均衡分析框架,从理论与实证两个角度分析了攀比效应条件下货币政策对居民消费的影响。通过理论模型研究发现,假定存在消费的外部性,如果居民过度攀比则货币供给的增加将减少福利,货币政策的福利效应取决于消费的外部性与垄断扭曲的相对力量。利用VAR模型和IRF进行检验并证实我国货币政策对城乡居民消费产生了差异性影响,货币政策对农村居民消费产生的累积效应呈放大趋势,对城镇居民消费产生的累积效应长期趋于稳定。提出了我国实施积极的货币政策对城乡居民消费进行干预的建议。
Based on the general equilibrium analysis framework under closed conditions, this paper analyzes the impact of monetary policy on household consumption from the perspective of theory and evidence. Through the theoretical model, we find that there is externality of consumption, if the residents over-comparisons, the increase of money supply will reduce the welfare, and the welfare effect of monetary policy depends on the externality of consumption and the relative power of monopoly distortion. Using VAR model and IRF to test and verify that China’s monetary policy has a differentiated impact on urban and rural residents’ consumption, the cumulative effect of monetary policy on rural residents’ consumption shows an upward trend, and the cumulative effect on urban residents’ consumption tends to be stable over the long term. Proposed the suggestion that our country implements the positive monetary policy to intervene the consumption of urban and rural residents.