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基于城市流强度模型测算2000年以来长江经济带126个地级以上城市在全国范围内的对外服务能力,进而采用改良锡尔系数、马尔可夫链和ESDA方法对城市对外服务能力的时空演变特征进行探讨。结果表明:研究时段内长江经济带各市城市流强度都有显著提升,但区域间的非均衡现象明显,城市对外服务能力呈现出由东部向西部的梯度递减;省内差异对城市对外服务能力的差异贡献率最高,是空间尺度差异的主要来源;对外服务能力存在明显的俱乐部趋同现象和空间自相关性,对外服务能力相似的区域聚集分布,东、中、西部分别形成长三角、武汉-长沙、成渝等对外服务区域中心;时空演变表现出阶段性特征,经历由极化向均衡的转变。最后指出多中心发展和寻找新增长点应成为长江经济带城市对外服务能力提升的方向。
Based on the model of urban flow intensity, we measured the nationwide service capabilities of 126 cities above the prefecture level in the Yangtze River economic belt since 2000, and then used the improved Symel coefficient, Markov chain and ESDA method to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of urban external service capabilities To explore. The results show that during the study period, the intensity of urban flow in each city in the Yangtze River economic belt has been significantly increased, but the imbalance among regions is obvious. The city’s external service capability shows a decreasing gradient from the east to the west. The highest contribution rate of difference is the main source of difference in spatial scale; there is obvious club convergence phenomenon and spatial autocorrelation in external service capability; the regions with similar external service capabilities are clustered and distributed; and the eastern, central and western regions respectively form the Yangtze River Delta, Wuhan-Changsha , Chengdu and Chongqing and other foreign service regional centers; the spatial and temporal evolution showed periodic characteristics and underwent the transition from polarization to equilibrium. Finally, it points out that the development of multi-centers and the search for a new growth point should be the direction for the improvement of the city’s external service capabilities in the Yangtze River economic belt.