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目前对中国税收增速大于GDP增速的研究多从经济增长、征管水平提升、GDP结构与税收结构差异、地方政府廉价批地所引致的高税产业高速发展等因素出发进行定性或较简单的实证研究。本文从GDP的产业结构以及各产业税负率入手,构建税收增速大于GDP增速的理论模型,并提供了相应的算法。该算法能测算各产业对此现象的“贡献”。我们试图为理解税收增速大于GDP增速的研究路径以及预测宏观税负率增减提供参考建议。
At present, China’s tax revenue growth rate is greater than the growth rate of GDP research more from the economic growth, the level of collection and management, GDP structure and tax structure differences, low-cost local governments caused by the rapid development of high-tax industries such as the rapid development of factors such as qualitative or simple Empirical Research. This article starts with the industrial structure of GDP and the tax rate of various industries and constructs the theoretical model that the tax growth rate is higher than the GDP growth rate and provides the corresponding algorithm. The algorithm measures the “contribution” of each industry to this phenomenon. We try to provide suggestions for understanding the research path of tax growth rate higher than GDP growth rate and forecasting the macro tax burden rate change.