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本文为了探讨小麦条锈病流行程度与预报要素的相互关系,改变了以往多元回归等繁琐方法,而采用Fuzzy相关分析的研究方法,取得很好的效果。结果表明,经对天水市1979年至1987年9年的资料进行运算,建立了综合决策模型,对9年的小麦条锈病流行程度进行了回测,历史符合率100％,并对1988年的状况进行验证,预报值与实况完全相吻合。
In order to explore the relationship between the epidemic degree of wheat stripe rust and the prediction elements, this paper changed the cumbersome methods such as multiple regression in the past, and achieved good results by using the research method of Fuzzy correlation analysis. The results showed that after the data of Tianshui from 1979 to 1987 were calculated, a comprehensive decision-making model was established to test the 9-year prevalence of wheat stripe rust. The historical coincidence rate was 100% The situation is verified, the predicted value exactly matches the actual situation.