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基于最新发布的世界投入产出数据库,运用前沿全球价值链分解方法计算出贸易中的本国增加值,在此基础上,采用世界出口份额、份额变化,分解巴拉萨指数、拉斐指数、标准化贸易收支等指标,比较和分析中国林产品制造业的贸易竞争力。研究发现,中国林产品制造业出口中的本国增加值占比从84%下降到81%;中国木材及木制品的世界出口份额由5.1%上升到11.2%,纸浆及纸制品的世界出口份额由1.3%升高到3.1%;中国林产品制造业出口份额的提高主要源于竞争效应的增强,但是中国面对世界市场动态变化及时调整的能力还有待加强;巴拉萨指数和拉斐指数反映出中国在木材及木制品上具有国际竞争优势,而在纸浆及纸制品上劣势较为明显;采用标准化贸易收支的分析表明,中国在木材及木制品上仍跟芬兰、加拿大等林产工业强国存在较大差距,而且在纸浆和纸制品上对欧美发达国家的进口依赖程度仍然较高。
Based on the newly released world input-output database, we calculate the value-added in the trade by using the global value chain decomposition method. On this basis, we use the world’s export share, the change of share, the decomposition of the Bahasa Index, the Rafah Index and the standardized trade Income and expenditure and other indicators, compare and analyze China’s forest products manufacturing trade competitiveness. The study found that the share of domestic value added in China’s forest products manufacturing exports dropped from 84% to 81%; the world export share of timber and wood products in China increased from 5.1% to 11.2%, and the world export share of pulp and paper products from 1.3% up to 3.1%; China’s forest products manufacturing exports increased mainly due to the enhancement of competition effect, but China’s ability to face timely changes in the world market dynamics need to be strengthened; Balassa index and Rafah index reflects China has an international competitive advantage in wood and wood products, while its disadvantages are more obvious in pulp and paper products. Analysis of the standardized trade balance shows that China still has more advantages in wood and wood products than those in the forestry industry such as Finland and Canada Big gap, but also in the pulp and paper products on the developed countries in Europe and the United States the dependence of imports is still high.