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为研究中国住房信贷政策对住房价格的作用机制,将房价分解为基本价值和短期偏离,利用面板数据计量经济模型定量分析住房信贷政策因素对北京等10个城市房价短期偏离的影响。研究表明:贷款利率对各城市房价短期偏离存在即期负向影响;开发贷款规模对房价短期偏离的正向推动作用在开发周期完成后显现,其影响程度取决于当地住房市场活跃度等因素。为有效发挥信贷政策作用,应分别以利率和开发贷款量作为调控房价的近期和远期手段,对不同类型城市实施差别化贷款力度。
In order to study the mechanism of China’s housing credit policy on housing prices, the paper divides housing prices into basic values and short-term deviations, and uses panel data econometric model to quantitatively analyze the impact of housing credit policy on housing price short-run deviations in 10 cities such as Beijing. The research shows that the lending rate has a immediate negative impact on the short-term deviations of housing prices in various cities. The positive effect of the scale of development loans on the short-term housing price deviations appears after the completion of the development cycle. The degree of impact depends on such factors as the degree of activity in the local housing market. In order to effectively play the role of credit policy, interest rates and the amount of development loans should be taken as the near and long-term means of controlling housing prices respectively, and differential loans should be implemented for different types of cities.