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中国是全球最大的煤炭生产国、消费国与进口国,煤炭开采和使用过程中引发了以大气污染为主的诸多环境问题。中国即将全面实施煤炭消费总量控制政策以应对大气污染,但各省份的控制目标仍在研究制定中。应用计量经济学的协整和格兰杰因果关系检验方法,选取1986~2012年的煤炭消费量与人均地区生产总值两个指标,对比研究中国各省份煤炭消费与经济增长的关系,并提出制定煤炭消费总量控制目标的建议。研究结果表明,不同省份的煤炭消费与经济增长之间的关系各不相同,有28个省份的煤炭消费与经济增长均为协整关系,有10个省份的煤炭消费对经济增长具有直接因果关系,为了保持新常态下区域社会经济的稳定发展,制定各省份煤炭消费总量控制目标与措施应区别对待。
As the largest coal producer, consumer and importer in the world, China has caused many environmental problems such as air pollution during its exploitation and use. China will soon implement the overall coal consumption control policy to cope with air pollution, but the control targets in all provinces are still under study and formulation. By using co-integration of econometrics and Granger causality test, this paper selects two indicators of coal consumption and GDP per capita from 1986 to 2012, and compares the relationship between coal consumption and economic growth in different provinces in China. Propose to set the goal of total coal consumption control. The results show that the relationship between coal consumption and economic growth varies from province to province. Coal consumption and economic growth in 28 provinces are in a cointegration relationship. Coal consumption in 10 provinces has a direct causal relationship with economic growth In order to maintain the steady social and economic development in the region under the new normal, we should make a distinction between the objectives and measures for controlling the total amount of coal consumption in various provinces.